Tagged: Business Insights Toggle Comment Threads | Keyboard Shortcuts

  • feedwordpress 00:57:22 on 2013/12/11 Permalink
    Tags: 2013 trends, 2014 forecast, , Albert Cheng, bill clinton, brian burke, Business Insights, Disney, e-learning, eMarketer, , foursquare, gamification, gartner, gartner's hype cycle, , , , , , IPOs, , macarthur foundation, , , , mozilla, mozilla labs, multi-tasking, NEXT TV Summit, open badges, openbadges.org, recofriendations, Schrage, second screen, the Fed, trend hunter, , VC funds, VCs, , , washington post, youGov   

    A Look Back: Michael Schrage’s Four 2013 Innovation Predictions 


    Warning: preg_match_all(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 7 in /homepages/23/d339537987/htdocs/ec/wp-content/themes/p2/inc/mentions.php on line 77
    A Look Back: Michael Schrage’s Four 2013 Innovation Predictions

    As the business world looks back on this year’s trends and looks forward to 2014, we’re revisiting what experts predicted for this year last December.

    Last week, we reviewed and evaluated Vivek Wadhwa’s five 2013 innovation predictions. On tap today: a review of MIT Sloan School research fellow Michael Schrage’s four 2013 innovation predictions, as featured in his December 2012 Harvard Business Review Guest Post.

    Let’s get started…

    1. Proliferation of Open Badges Online

    According to Schrage, badges would increasingly be used in the online world to earmark valid and verifiable accreditation from companies, academic institutions, and professional associations.

    Scorecard: Miss.

    Open badges have their roots in gamification. Alas, the gamification backlash has begun. Gamification currently is at the very top of the Peak of Inflated Expectations in Gartner’s Hype Cycle, dangerously close to teetering into “the trough of disillusionment.”

    Gamification: Gartner Hype Cycle Position

    The Trough of Disillusionment (A Definition)
    “Technologies and related startups … fail to meet expectations and quickly become unfashionable. The press usually abandons the topic.” (SOURCE: BUSINESS INSIDER)

    According to Gartner research VP Brian Burke, companies/developers that get fixated on points and badges fail. “You just can’t put badges on something and expect it to work,” Burke has said.

    In June 2013, Mozilla Labs, the MacArthur Foundation, and former President Bill Clinton launched the Open Badges Project to promote the use of badges to identify online credentials. Q42013 project momentum has been slow. In fact, the project hasn’t had any press coverage since Schrage’s HBR forecast.

    We suspect that open accreditation badges will face a long uphill battle for three reasons: (1) talent capabilities need to be proven, not asserted (2) the judgment of “capabilities” is subjective and (3) the idea of badges conflicts with America’s “prizes for all” culture and is likely to suffer from gamification’s downslope trend. Without secure signing, open badges are subject to a huge host of other issues.

    We’re doubtful that badges (Mozilla or otherwise) will revolutionize e-learning or disrupt higher education in the near future.

    2. A Big Boom in Second Screen Multi-Tasking

    Multidevice engagement and multi-tasking would be increasingly omnipresent in 2013, predicted Schrage. Content creators worldwide would readjust their business models accordingly.

    Scorecard: Miss.

    Networks, advertisers, and social-media services trying to capitalize on the “second screen phenomenon” have encountered challenges. Twitter is still the only social television app with any critical mass.

    Many noted experts are beginning to declare that you can’t make money with second screen. That second screen equates to “no-income advertising.” The more we drive consumers to the second screen, the harder it becomes to monetize their time and attention.

    According to a new report by eMarketer, roughly half of all Americans look at their social networks while watching TV but only one in six post something about what they’re watching.

    Disney’s Digital EVP, Albert Cheng, especially dislikes second screen. “Second screen apps are not a game that we want to be in,” said Cheng at the Next TV Summit in San Francisco during September. “Second screen is a distraction.”

    If brand and network hesitancy and absence of ROI are not enough to thwart second screen, most viewers DVR shows and watch them later (save for rare “extreme fan” exceptions like the Super Bowl and Breaking Bad’s finale).

    We simply don’t see second screen stealing ad share away from television.

    3. Recofriendations

    According to Schrage, social media recommendations from friends would be taken more seriously in 2013, offering sophisticated reasons and rationales for recommendations. Schrage predicted we’d see feedback loop links between Quora and Outlook/Gmail/Linkedin/Facebook. Links between Expedia/Outlook/and social networks. Links between Powerpoint/Slideshare/and social networks.

    Scorecard: Miss.

    Are we guided by what the Jones’ are doing? In the real world, yes. Via social networks? Surprisingly no. The value of social recommendations is on a steep declining slope. While research has shown that 70 percent of consumers trust social media recommendations from friends more than traditional advertising, people don’t buy what their friends RECOMMEND on social media platforms.

    Is Facebook’s search technology failing marketers? A growing number of companies believe that Facebook ads don’t work. New research from YouGov reveals that 83% of shoppers will ignore friends’ social media recommendations this holiday season. Social recommendations increase discovery and trust, but not sales (particularly among males). Keller-Fay, the word of mouth specialist, reports that 90% of brand conversations still take place offline.

    As for the extensive recofriendation feedback loop links across all social networks? Didn’t really happen.

    4. Easy Capital

    Schrage believed the Fed’s policies would make it easier for innovative entrepreneurs to raise capital in 2013. He expected entrepreneurship to be perceived as an “alternative investment” with huge appeal to institutional investors seeking diversification options. “There may never be a better time to be a charismatic entrepreneur with a scalable prototype,” Schrage wrote.

    Scorecard: Miss.

    Though the final tally is not yet in, year-end 2013 venture capital investments are expected to be lower than 2012.  VCs are taking smaller stakes and structuring fewer deals with liquidation preferences. Most VC funds are small. IPOS are still unlikely to be a rich exit (even Twitter stock is proving volatile). And the series A crunch continues. Overall seed stage investment in startups has decreased from a year ago.

    Medical devices startups, in particular, continue to face a VC funding freeze. Medtech investments are at their lowest point in 9 years. The 2.3 percent medical device tax is contributing to the gloomy fundraising outlook.

    The cold hard facts: ninety percent of all businesses in the US have 0-5 employees. They are small and most will stay small.

    MY OVERALL EVALUATION OF MICHAEL SCHRAGE’S 2013 INNOVATION PREDICTIONS
    Optimistic. The Year That COULD Have Been. Predictions are just educated guesses. Optimism can be a good thing but it can impair your forward-thinking vision. Without realism, unbridled optimism can lead to real-world disaster.

    So, how would you score Michael Schrage’s 2013 predictions? Which trend surprised you most this year? What was YOUR favorite 2013 innovation or technology prediction? Did it come to fruition?

    Up next week: Trend Hunter Jeremy Gutsche”s 20 predictions for 2013 predictions, revealed IN THIS VIDEO. Due to space, we’ll recap five of our favorites and assess whether his predictions came true.

     
  • feedwordpress 18:42:11 on 2013/12/09 Permalink
    Tags: , , , Business Insights, , , , , , Kindle, Mayday, , , transformation, XBOX One   

    Looking Ahead to 2014 


    Warning: preg_match_all(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 7 in /homepages/23/d339537987/htdocs/ec/wp-content/themes/p2/inc/mentions.php on line 77
    Looking Ahead to 2014

    There are more than enough posts about predictions and trends for 2014 out there to entertain your mind. I’m not one to make predictions. I prefer to set the agenda. Two things I will talk about in this post to look forward to the next year: connected experiences and how we think about innovation.

    Let’s Talk About Connected Experiences

    While most of the discussion in 2014 will still be around the hot topics of Big Data, The Internet of Things, 3D Printing, and other buzzworthy topics; what holds these things together and can’t be easily replicated is an overall connected experience.  Organizations will still look at all of the hot topics as separate pieces, to see how they can integrate them, and this is usually how it starts: you starting testing in isolation until you figure out if works for you.

    But experiences are more fluid and connected than ever. The recent advances in sync technology that the XBOX One brings to the table is a leading indicator on how devices are connected experiences. You can bring them with you anywhere. And, while tablets and smartphones will become pervasive touch points in those experiences, the human element will not be replaced. People still want to have contact with people, if it makes sense.

    Amazon shows that they understand this better than ever with their Mayday feature that comes with the newest breed of Kindles. Whether they got it right or wrong isn’t the point. What they are saying is that they want to have contact with customers, and will be available with one click when the customer needs them. This is thinking ahead of the game, and just comes to show how they are “retail”.

    The Key Takeway Here

    The conversation about emerging technologies should be around the connected experience and outcomes for customers, not the benefits for an organization. Your point of view should define what to do and what not to do.

    To look back is to look forward. The saddest thing about 2013 is that the word “innovation” keeps getting diluted. It is now a marketing ploy. Before the end of the year, and every day after that, companies who are serious about innovation should ask themselves this question: how can we be the only ones who do what we do?

    The answer to that question isn’t about Big Data, or any other “hot topic”, it is about what are you enabling customers to do. How are you transforming them?

    People don’t remember specific features, they remember the experience had. Companies are confusing a product upgrade with innovation, and to believe that changing one thing is enough to make a splash is short-term-ism at its finest. A recent post on the Wall Street Journal has pretty much put it in perspective how executives are looking at innovation: “something that is innovative to them”.

    The Right Way to Think About Innovation

    The right way to think about innovation is this: how are we transforming customers? How are we helping them be innovative?

    This is a different way of thinking about value proposition; it’s about developing human capital. Not simply delivering a product or service “because that is what companies do”. Companies that believe that out-featuring competitors is the way to innovation riches are kidding themselves. You might feel that way in the short term, but you are simply adding more wood to the fire that creates a thick screen of smoke that distracts and annoys people.

    Customers, people, users, are experiencing more chaos than ever. Too many choices are creating noise in their lives. This is a huge opportunity for both startups and established companies to make an impact in people’s lives. The sooner you rethink how you look at innovation, the faster you will orient your efforts towards really thinking about how you might transform them.

    To finish, I’ll leave you with this last thought: the more you say you are innovative, the less innovative you are.

     

     
  • feedwordpress 21:10:08 on 2013/11/22 Permalink
    Tags: , actionable business insights, , Big Data ROI, Business Insights, , Data Visualization, FlowingData, G.I.S., genome research, geodemographic information science, , , , Visualize This, Whistle, wikileaks   

    5×5: The Big Deluge of Big Data 


    Warning: preg_match_all(): Compilation failed: invalid range in character class at offset 7 in /homepages/23/d339537987/htdocs/ec/wp-content/themes/p2/inc/mentions.php on line 77
    5×5: The Big Deluge of Big Data

    It’s Friday. And that means, it’s time for Friday 5×5. Friday 5×5 is our weekly blog post featuring diverse perspectives from RE:INVENTION’s Leadership team about a controversial news article or research report.

    UP THIS WEEK: THE DELUGE OF BIG DATA

    Should companies be thankful for Big Data? Big Data can provide unprecedented amounts of information on consumer behavior, likely eliminating the needs of companies to use focus groups. However, many companies are struggling to use Big Data effectively. And from consumers’ perspectives, Big Data comes with the threat of infringing on privacy. In this week’s discussion, the RE:INVENTION team assesses the pros and cons that come with the implementation of Big Data.

    This Week’s Reference Articles:

    THIS WEEK’S QUESTION

    What are the pros and cons of big data for today’s business leaders?

    OUR TEAM’S RESPONSES

    Kirsten Osolind (“President and COO”)

    Data is “the next frontier for innovation.” Everybody says so, including McKinsey & Company. “Effective use of big data can increase a company’s return on investment by 10-20%,” McKinsey has declared. Big data leaders have 5% higher productivity and 6% higher profits than their competitors. For the rest of us, achieving Big Data payoffs can be vexing.

    In fact, if your company doesn’t have deep pockets like Google or Facebook and tons of dedicated data analysts and engineers on staff, mining business answers from Big Data can be a backbreaker. Many — dare I say most — companies have yet to put big data to the test in an actual business use case.

    And there’s the rub. Huge data sets are useless unless they provide actionable insights. For companies to generate value from Big Data, they need to connect data sets to insights to action in a fast, repeatable way.

    The secret to better Big Data ROI? Data visualization.

    Yes, some folks find numbers “sexy“, but most people think visually. Data visualization creates the narrative that companies need to harness Big Data for high impact. Data visualization can help your company see patterns, discover inconsistencies, and find answers to questions you never thought to ask. What you “don’t know that you don’t know.”

    According to a recent IDG Research study:

    • 98% of companies that are most effective at Big Data analysis have data visualization solutions in place.
    • Among companies that are “not very” or “not at all” effective at Big Data analysis, only 16% have implemented a data visualization solution and one-third have no plans to do so.

    Good data visualization requires more than eye-catching graphics. Here are six helpful tips:

    1. Tell a story — help viewers understand and make sense of the information.
    2. Know your audience — ask yourself what they already know, what their preconceived biases will be, and how they will interpret the new information.
    3. KISS if you can — simple is usually best, but realize that sometimes complex datasets require complex visualizations.
    4. Pick the right tool(s) for your data — let your questions guide your choice of data visualization tools.
    5. Consider hiring a vendor/service partner. No hard sell here on RE:INVENTION’s services. My point is simply that hiring experienced Big Data consultants — preferably those who are skilled in design thinking — can shorten your learning curve as your company nurtures your own Big Data prowess.
    6. Interactive maps are cool — in fairness, this is just my humble (and perhaps biased) opinion.

    When it comes to privacy, research suggests that most people will willingly share their personal information in exchange for benefits (discounts and perks). Safeguarding that data is the onus of ethical companies.

    Want some good reading materials on data visualization? I’m a HUGE FAN of Visualize This: The Flowing Data Guide to Design, Visualization, and Statistics (Wiley) written by author Nathan Yau, (aka FlowingData blogger).

    Joe Barrus (“The Technologist”)

    Big Data is the latest buzzword/trend businesses are being told they must adopt.  We are in the middle of the hype cycle where Big Data is heavily marketed and sold but whose benefits; implementation and application are not clearly understood or agreed upon by both suppliers and consumers.

    But like all new technologies and movements, there is basic value that will come to rest for the duration.  Big Data is here to stay.  In fact it will become a necessary tool for business survival and well integrated into business strategy and operational processes going into the future.

    The prima facie value is big data’s ability to gain insight into behaviors, needs and desires of different demographics through the technology’s ability to recognize patterns that exist in volumes of data.  By leveraging these patterns, businesses can get closer to providing consumers with more personalized products and services at economic scale.  This will give companies better capability to differentiate and compete within niche markets.  Economically, it is a knowledge creation machine that will help optimize products and services that will benefit consumers.

    But probably the greater value for Big Data is its ability to crunch volumes of data to reach accurate decisions quicker.  As we move into the future, we are seeing accelerating technological change.  This only serves to reduce the windows of opportunity to capitalize on new products and services.  Big Data gives companies the ability to predict future demand and make key strategic and tactical business decisions quicker than has been with traditional business analysis activities.  This speed to action will become a core capability all companies will need to develop in order to survive in today’s fast changing markets.  There are plenty of examples of where slow and inaccurate decision making has imposed significant harm on businesses profitability and survival.

    Outside of markets, Big Data has the ability to enable and bring forth significant social change. Big Data will become a core technology that will help with social planning, improving healthcare outcomes, reducing environmental risk, providing security, etc.

    But all this does not come without risk.  The negative implications are reduced privacy and potential for abuse.  But all improvements come with tradeoffs; we just need to decide as a society what we are willing to trade for those improvements.  I happen to like it when Amazon recommends products to me based on what others who were shopping in similar contexts bought.  But I also know that would not be possible if our shopping behavior was not stored and used as a source to produce those recommendations.  But because I’m confident that no one (at any level of significance) is examining my personal data with a critical eye but rather machines are objectively looking at patterns to improve my experiences, I’m ok with that.  We’ve always made these tradeoffs in the past on a smaller scale when we answer surveys and fill out personal profiles, etc.  It’s just that nowadays; this is done at a much greater scale.

    However, this greater scale is exactly what increases the risk of abuse if this data falls into nefarious hands.  If this data falls into the hands of criminals or unscrupulous government officials, it does present a real risk.  This is why it is important as a society to not become complacent as Big Data becomes more ubiquitous.  We need to understand the potential for abuse and set appropriate limitations and exert strong governance processes to manage and enforce it.  Any technology can be abused.  One can use a telephone to make bomb threats, but that doesn’t mean we need to ban telephones.  But we do need to make sure that abuse of these technologies are addressed and enforced.

    Big Data is here to stay and I believe its positives outweigh its negatives overall as it will have significant positive impact on future society as long as we pay attention to what we are doing.

    Dennis Jarvis (“The Marketeer”)

    What is Big Data? If it is quite simply (although there is nothing simple about Big Data design and management) the harnessing of vast amounts of information to provide the public with better products, services and conveniences to meet individual needs and improve lives, it sounds quite desirable. If we put Big Data in the context of “it is not just what you know, it’s what you know about whom,” it seems to take-on a darker side, almost something out of the analogs of Wikileaks, with concerning ethical, perhaps legal concerns.

    To me, Big Data parallels genome research. Genome research has opened-up the mother lode of life saving and changing medical options. We are now gaining access into the very causes of disease and potential solutions for prevention. Genome research has also caused rift in sectors of society over ethics and morals, almost akin to what surfaced with the publishing of Aldous Huxley’s novel, Brave New World. However, the advances to-date and portending for the future have far outweighed any downside, in my opinion.

    Big Data has been progressing for many decades. Even in the early analog days of data collection, there was concern about confidentiality. The digital age has mushroomed this. I remember my feeling of confidence employing G.I.S. (Geodemographic Information Science) systems to identify micro-marketing opportunities, and even with these technologies there were confidentiality concerns, albeit nowhere near what has been raised about Big Data. How far we have come. I think Big Data holds more promise than concern. Nonetheless, as with anything in society, we will encounter individual acts that will raise alarm. But, I believe these will be in the minority and we cannot allow the 2% to drive the 98%.

    In business, science and government, the role and governance of Big Data needs to be set at the very top with a strong vision. Big Data requires organizational leaders to set the culture, agenda and rules, and to be held accountable by their constituencies and customers.

    Jorge Barba (“The Culture Guy”)

    With great power comes great responsibility. So companies should first feel more responsible, not thankful. I don’t think most company executives are in that state of mind though.

    Anyhow, I believe invasion of privacy will become the norm, and most won’t even notice when that happens. The problem, from a consumer’s point of view, is that most everything we use is now connected to a larger network of things. At some point, everything will be connected.  This is the data that has unprecedented value for companies who are competing a consumer’s attention because, well, it’s never been there before.

    But for companies, this creates a headache because they have more dots to connect that could potentially provide more meaning. Still, the challenge is to make sense of it all. It is very easy to take the data as a leading indicator of future behavior. Data won’t replace intuition, but enhance it. But to see its full potential, both for the consumer and the business, companies must be human oriented to make sense of it all.

    The point: don’t put an economist or IT person in front of the data. Put an anthropologist, a psychologist, a designer, anybody who looks beyond the numbers by going outside the building and having contact with the market.

    Kane (“K-9 Intern”)

    Humans have plenty of data. It’s time to analyze us dogs. Three big woofs for Big Data startup company, Whistle.  Whistle helps pet owners spot early signs that their dog is sick using Big Data. Their wearable Whistle Tracker measures your dog’s activity levels during walks, play, and rest. Works great for me when I hit the gym for yoga.

    THE FINAL WORD

    Big Data is here to stay. It is in any company’s best interest to embrace it and use it to better understand and predict their customers’ behaviors. At RE:INVENTION, our team of change agents weed through big data, provide actionable business insights, design customized business intelligence tools, and ultimately commercialize products and build markets for Clients. Our goal is to help our Clients make better informed decisions, reinventing the way that they do business. LEARN MORE about our Services.

     

     
c
compose new post
j
next post/next comment
k
previous post/previous comment
r
reply
e
edit
o
show/hide comments
t
go to top
l
go to login
h
show/hide help
esc
cancel